NO SURVEY DONE IN TAMIL NADU AFTER 8 APRIL
TODAY’S ANALYSIS on politicsparty.com on Tamil Nadu Politics is based purely on the understanding of the Crowds Atmosphere and is Not at all based on any SURVEY, as we have NOT done any Post-Poll Opinion Poll Survey after the Elections process has begun.
This is because the Election Commission of India has Banned all the Publication of Opinion Polls and the Exit Polls, until all the Phases of Polling are Completed on 19 MAY 2019.
So today, we are ONLY Analysing the Atmosphere in the Public Meetings in Tamil Nadu, addressed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, DMK President M.K.Stalin, AIADMK Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisami and the Road Shows being done by the Sasikala Nephew T.T.V.Dhinakaran of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam new Regional Party which is Not yet recognized as a Party by the Election Commission of India.
VOTERS WILL RUBBISH OPINION POLLS PREDICTIONS
The Voters in the 18 April 2019 TamilNadu Lok Sabha Elections for 39 Seats, will RUBBISH all the TV Channels and their Opinion Polls, when the Results are Declared on 23 MAY 2019.
Almost all the Pre-Poll Surveys of the National and the State Opinion Polling Agencies have Predicted that the M.K.Stalin Led DMK+INC+Others will win 30-36 of the 39 Lok Sabha Seats in Tamil Nadu.
The Jan Ki Baat Polling Agency had predicted an Equal Split of the 39 Lok Sabha Seats for both the AIADMK-BJP Alliance and the DMK-INC Alliance.
The Results of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will create the NEW Electoral Reality in Tamil Nadu Electoral Politics.
OPINION POLLS WRONGLY PREDICTED DMK WIN IN 2016
All the Opinion Poll Agencies had Wrongly Predicted that the DMK Victory in the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections.
The Jayalalitha Led AIADMK without any Major Alliance won the Clear Majority in the 234 MLAs Tamil Nadu Assembly.
The Karunanidhi Led DMK-INC Alliance win ONLY 98 of the 234 Assembly Seats.
Now in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections the AIADMK Leader Jayalalitha and the DMK Leader Karunanidhi are both absent as both died.
CASTE PERCENT IN TAMIL NADU
The Tamil Nadu Voters are:
Dalits are 20% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
Christians are 5% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
Muslims are 5% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Kisans namely the Farming Castes of the Murkul Thevar, the Vaniyars and the Gounders are 40% of the of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Backward Castes are 20% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Bramhins are 01% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Baniyas are 01% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
All the Others Castes are about 8% of the Total votes in Tamil Nadu.
KISANS & DALITS ALWAYS VOTED FOR JAYALALITHA
Jayalalitha had the devoted support of most of the Kisan Castes of Thevars, Vaniyars and Gounders and support of the Dalits.
Jayalalitha with the committed voting of the Kisan Castes and the Dalits got about 40% of the Total Votes in Tamil Nadu, to win the Lok Sabha and the Assembly Elections.
2019 VOTES SHARES OF EACH PARTY, IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT
It is impossible to assume the Probable Votes Share of each Alliance and the Partys Not in any Alliance, in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
The Earlier Votes Share of the AIADMK, DMK and the Other Partys in All the Elections till Now will NOT remain the Same.
This is because, Both the Leaders Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi are Dead.
Thus both the Major Alliances in Tamil Nadu, Led by the Karunanidhi Son M.K.Stalin DMK-INC Alliance and the Chief Minister Palanisami Led AIADMK-BJP Alliance have to win the Votes without the presence of the gigantic Leaders Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi.
KAMALAHASAN WILL SPLIT DMK VOTES
The Popular Tamil Actor Kamalahasan has launched New Regional Party in Tamilnadu named as the TNM: Tamil Needhi Maiyam.
The Kamalahasan Party has put Candidates in all the 39 Lok Sabha Seats and in all the 18 Assembly Seats.
Kamalahasan is a Brahmin.
Kamalahasan will Not get the Votes of the Kisan Castes, Backward Castes and Dalits.
Kamalahasan will Not get a single vote which was loyal to Jayalalitha.
Kamalahasan will get the Votes of the DMK.
Kamalahasan will Split the DMK Votes.
The More Votes that the Kamalahasan Led Tamil Needhi Maiyam Party will win, then more will be the damage to the DMK.
SASIKALA IN JAIL, OUSTED & EXPELLED FROM AIADMK
The AIADMK Natural heir is the Jayalalitha Confidante Aide Sasikala.
Sasikala is in Jail after the Supreme Court convivted her in the Jayalalitha Disproportionate Assets Case.
SASIKALA WRONGLY PUNISHED IN JAYALAITHA DISPROPORTIONATE ASSETS CASE
Sasikala as per the Constitution cannot either be the Chief Minister Or Contest any Elections, as she has been convicted by the Supreme Court to be in the Jail for 4 years till 2021.
Sasikala has never been an MLA, MP Or Minister and therefore cannot be Convicted under the Disproportionate Assets Crime.
Yet the Supreme Court Jailed Sasikala.
The Jailing of Sasikala has got the Jayalalitha Voters to be sympathetic to her for being punished in the Jayalalitha Disproportionate Assets Case.
SASIKALA BETRAYED BY HER APPOINTEES
Sasikala has been CRUELLY betrayed by the person whom she made the Chief Minister After thJayalalitha Death, namely Edapadi Palanisami.
Sasikala has been awfully betrayed by all her Appointees in the AIADMK Government.
AIADMK HIJACKED BY CHIEF MINISTER & MINISTERS
The AIADMK has been Hijacked by the AIADMK Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisami and all the AIADMK Ministers.
The AIADMK Chief Minister Palanisamy and the AIADMK Deputy Chief Minister Panneerselvam both ganged up to Hijack the AIADMK from Sasikala.
The AIADMK Chief Minister Palanisamy and the AIADMK Deputy Chief Minister Panneerselvam both ganged up to remove Sasikala from the Post of the AIADMK Party Chief.
The AIADMK Chief Minister Palanisamy and the AIADMK Deputy Chief Minister Panneerselvam both ganged up to EXPEL Sasikala from the AIADMK Party.
SASIKALA GOT NEPHEW T.T.V.DHINAKARAN TO BREAK AWAY FROM AIADMK
Sasikala has got her Nephew (Elder Sister’s Son) T.T.V.Dhinakaran to Create the Break Away Group from the AIADMK.
Sasikala has got her Nephew (Elder Sister’s Son) T.T.V.Dhinakaran to wean away 18 AIADMK MLAs.
18 MLAs LOYAL TO SASIKALA DISQUALIFIED
The 18 MLAs have been disqualified by the Chennai High Court.
The 18 MLA Seats will have By-Elections along with the 39 Lok Sabha Elections.
SASIKALA CREATED NEW PARTY AMMK: AMMA MAKKAL MUNNETRA KAZHAGAM
Sasikala has created the New Party named as the AMMK: Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. Amma is Mother for Jayalalitha.
The AIADMK and the DMK Proprietors have ganged up to Prevent the Sasikala Party namely the AMMK from being recognised as the Political Party by manipulating both the Election Commision of India and the Courts.
Sasikala’S Party AMMK has got the temporary Symbol of GIFT PACK.
The Supreme Court has in the Strange Verdict said that the Sasikala 39 Lok Sabha Candidates and all the 18 Assembly Candidates will be deemed as Independents,
So, IF they win the Elections, then they can freely join any Party, without being disqualified through the Anti-Defection Law.
The Supreme Court is wrongly helping the Anti-Sasikala Parties.
FOUR HORSES FIGHT IN TAMIL NADU LOK SABHA POLLS
The Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Elections for the 39 Lok Sabha Seats will be the FOUR HORSES Contest.
The Fight to Dominate Tamil Nadu is among the Under Listed Alliances & Partys:
The M.K.Stalin Led DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-Others Alliance.
The Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy Led AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-Others Alliance.
The Kamalahasan Led Tamil Needhi Maiyam contesting without any Alliance.
The Sasikala in Jail led AMMK pivoted by her Nephew T.T.V.Dhinakaran is contesting on its own without any Alliance.
TV CHANNELS PREDICTED ZERO SEATS FOR SASIKALA & KAMALAHASAN
The TV Channels Opinion Polls have Predicted that Both the Sasikala AMMK Party and the Kamalahasan TNM Party will NOT win a Single Lok Sabha Seat in the 39 Seats
The TV Channels Opinion Polls have Predicted that Both the Sasikala AMMK Party and the Kamalahasan TNM Party will Not win a Single Assembly Seats in the 18 MLA By-Elections.
JAYALALITHA VOTERS WILL DECIDE TAMILNADU LOK SABHA SEATS WINNERS
The Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Elections Results will be determined ONLY by the Voting Intention of the hitherto Loyal-to Jayalalitha Voters.
The emotionally commited to Jayalalitha Voters Constitute 40% of the Total Votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Party which gets all the Jayalalitha Votes will win the Seats in Tamil Nadu.
The Jayalalitha Voters will decide the winner in each of the 39 Lok Sabha Seats in Tamil Nadu.
DMK WILL NOT GET JAYALALTHA VOTES
The M.K.Stalin Led DMK pivoted Alliance will not get even ONE Vote which was Loyal to Jayalalitha.
The M.K.Stalin Led DMK pivoted Alliance will FAIL to get even All the Votes which the DMK used to get when Karunanidhi was Alive.
The M.K.Stalin Led DMK pivoted Alliance will win many of the hitherto Loyal-to DMK Votes.
The M.K.Stalin Led DMK pivoted Alliance will in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, win LESS than the votes the DMK won in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections.
AIADMK WILL NOT GET JAYALALITHA VOTES
The Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy Led AIADMK has NO Votes of its Own.
The Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy Led AIADMK is desperately hoping to woo the Jayalalitha Voters.
The Jayalalitha Voters are still emotional about Jayalalitha.
The Jayalalitha Voters have NO emotional, political and electoral Connectivity with the Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy Led AIADMK
AIADMK DEPENDS ON PM MODI TO GET VOTES
The Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy Led AIADMK is depending purely on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to get the Votes in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP however does NOT have even 5% Votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Prime Minister Narendra Modi Persona will surely deliver many Votes to the AIADMK in the 20 Seats the AIADMK is contesting.
The Prime Minister Narendra Modi Persona has made the BJP Candidates in the 5 Lok Sabha Seats to become the Main Challengers winning probably about 30% of the Total votes.
PMK VOTES WILL NOT TRANSFER TO AIADMK
The AIADMK Ally the PMK, a Party of the Vaniyars Caste has about 5% Votes.
The AIADMK Ally the PMK, will get the Vaniyar Votes ONLY in the 6 Lok Sabha Seats it is contesting in Allaince with the AIADMK-BJP.
The PMK Vaniyar Voters are unlikely to vote for the AIADMK-BJP-DMDK Candidates in the 33 Lok Sabha Seats.
The PMK might win ONLY One Seat Contested by the PMK President and the former Central health Minister Ramadoss.
JAYALALITHA VOTERS SYMPATHY ONLY FOR SASIKALA
The Voters who were Loyal to Jayalalitha are about 40% of the Total Votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Jayalalitha Voters feel that it is ONLY Sasikala who is suffering because of Jayalalitha.
The Jayalalitha Voters feel that all those in the Tamilnadu AIADMK State Government have betrayed Jayalalitha.
The Jayalalitha Voters feel that all those in the Tamilnadu AIADMK State Government betrayed Jayalalitha by Removing Sasikala from the Post of AIADMK Party Chief.
The Jayalalitha Voters feel that all those in the Tamilnadu AIADMK State Government betrayed Jayalalitha by Expelling Sasikala from the AIADMK Party.
The Jayalalitha Voters feel that all those in the Tamilnadu AIADMK State Government betrayed Jayalalitha by Conspiring to put Sasikala in Jail to prevent her from becoming the Chief Minister and Contesting the Elections
JAYALALITHA VOTERS WILL VOTE ONLY FOR SASIKALA
The Jayalalitha Voters have sympathy ONLY for Sasikala.
The Jayalalitha Voters are likely to vote ONLY for the Sasikala-in-Jail Led AMMK Party Candidates.
The Jayalalitha Voters are likely to vote ONLY for the Sasikala-in-Jail Led AMMK Party Candidates in all the 38 Lok Sabha Seats and the Ally in Chennai Central Seat.
The Jayalalitha Voters are likely to vote ONLY for the Sasikala-in-Jail Led AMMK Party Candidates in all the 22 Assembly By-Elections in Tamil Nadu.
The Sasikala-in-Jail Led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam Party, Pivoted by her Nephew T.T.V.Dhinakaran MLA, will win almost all the 39 lok Sabha Seats and the 22 Assembly By-Elections, IF the hitherto Loyal to Jayalalitha Voters Vote 100% for the Sasikala Candidates, in the Tamil Nadu 39 Lok Sabha Seats and the 22 Assembly By-Elections.